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Beagle
Worcester, MA
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WTH-the-original wrote: Maura was seen by the school bus driver at the accident scene.
Bill This would be true if SBD had given a really detailed description of Maura, a description that would have reliably and specifically distinguished her from all the other unfamiliar dark haired females one talks to for a half-minute or minute in the dark.
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Snowy
Gloucester, MA
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whitenoise wrote: <quoted text>
I should have also mentioned that it was three (3) months after she allegedly heard this on her scanner before she suddenly popped into MMM to drop her bombshell. At least some people like Shack took it to be a bombshell, others of us heard it as goobledygook. gobbledygook, as in contrived....because when specific, basic questions were asked of her, the answers were evasive and/or implausible. and most importantly, to my recollection, she did not admit to taking this "valuable" information to the authorities. actually, the whole presentation is not dissimilar to RF's - well after the fact, and an anecdotal, unreliable accounting. JMO
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Snowy
Gloucester, MA
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Beagle wrote: <quoted text>If you are willing to totally - totally - rely on SBD's identification of Maura at the WB curve accident scene, then it's important to be consistent and apply the same standards to any other conclusions.
SBD's identification is not reliable. He saw a young woman who resembled Maura and may certainly have been Maura, but SBD had never seen Maura before, never even seen a picture of her before. On what truly reliable basis could SBD have ID'd Maura at the WB curve? In the dark. Looking like a million other college-age females?
Why is it so impossible that Maura was separated from her car? It happens.
The logic of applying an accumulative history of people leaving their cars to evade arrest by police of operating under is leaving out, in this case, a key element of the package. Almost all drivers who evade police in order to sober up are either found by police or show up on their own.
This is not a case of a car abandonded by a driver who later is found. This is a case of a car abandoned forever in NH by a young woman who usually drove this car. There's a difference. You have to look at the total package here. You can't apply a history of people temporarily abandoning their cars with a case of someone who leaves it behind permantently and disappears for eight years. completely agree.
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Snowy
Gloucester, MA
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Judged:
1
Beagle wrote: <quoted text>One small caveat. If the officer responding to the Corolla crash positively identified her, and then he, so to speak, handed her off to the tow truck driver, and, especially if she used AAA for the tranport to the motel, then I guess the tow truck driver would be the last one, but that's not truly as solid as the ID by a police officer.
Having said that, it's very possible that Maura was not driving the Corolla when it crashed. Because... If she was familiar with the route, then she would probably not have run the stop sign and crashed into the guardrail opposite the end of N. Hadley Rd. Unless her driving was impaired, which can happen from too much alcohol - among other things.
If she had never driven the N. Hadley Rd. route, then she probably would have taken University Dr to Russell St to the motel. That's the normal route you would take from SW to the motel. I drive these roads every day, so I'm very familiar with local habits.
So... If Maura was not driving the Corolla, who was?
And, to throw out another really tiny caveat, it's possible - very unlikely, but possible - that someone who merely looked like Maura and who had borrowed her license was at the scene. But that seems very, very unlikely.
Therefore, I think it probable that Maura was either quite impaired or was not driving the Corolla when it crashed. Which brings up two questions: Who was driving the Corolla? And/or why was Maura not arrest for operating under? excellent questions; all within the realm of possibilities.
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Beagle
Worcester, MA
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WTH-the-original wrote: Maura was seen by the school bus driver at the accident scene.
Bill Exactly how was Maura ID'd at the WB curve accident scene? Where is this information from?
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Bumping for Maura
Norrköping, Sweden
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WTH-the-original wrote: Maura was seen by the school bus driver at the accident scene.
Bill Bill, Surely we can not under any circumstances be 100% sure that Mr Atwood was able to absolutely positively identify the female driver of the Saturn at the WB curve. It would have been quite impossible for anyone in Mr Atwood´s position to be able to make that kind of certain identification in the darkness and remaining some way away from the driver of the Saturn. Mr Atwood obviously saw and spoke to someone at the Saturn who looked like Maura. I´m not remotely suggesting that he wasn´t speaking the truth. It likely was Maura at the Saturn, but this supposed identification would likely not have held up in court. An Amherst scenario is therefore not to be scoffed at.
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Beagle
Worcester, MA
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As far as Maura spending time off-campus, well, off-campus does not need to be very far from the dorm. Several streets near SW - one in particular - are notorious for being little more than several street-long series of student flop houses. These apartments are rarely if ever advertised. They are basically handed down from one tenant to another. An athlete, for example, may tell a teammate about the apartment available next year. The teammate applies with the recommendation of the current tenant. Some landlords prefer certain kinds of tenants, such soroity sisters, Newman Club members, football players, grad students, etc. Most student rents in Amherst run from Aug. 1 to Aug. 1 next year.
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Tom
Chesterfield, MO
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Snowy wrote: <quoted text>
excellent questions; all within the realm of possibilities. The accident report said she was driving, and Maura's father insurance was covering the accident. If this isn't accepted as some form of truth than even more theories can be made from an already enough complex case.
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Beagle
Worcester, MA
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Lot 12 is a crummy parking lot. It's on the far side of Mullins from SW. The upper portion is like most other parking lots, but it deteriorates maybe halfway down the hill going west, toward 116. It turns into loose gravel-like surface, then just sand. At the lower end of the parking lot, there are several cement partitions for storing gravel, stone, loam, etc. The broad, sandy area, as you approach 116, swerves off to the right and eventually diverts into two dirt roads that disappear into the woods. If Maura was attacked in lot 12, then the immediate area would certainly have accomodated her body without anyone ever seeing it.
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Snowy
Gloucester, MA
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Tom wrote: <quoted text>
The accident report said she was driving, and Maura's father insurance was covering the accident. If this isn't accepted as some form of truth than even more theories can be made from an already enough complex case. have you ever allowed someone else to drive your car? or rental car? or borrowed car? it happens. the other person, whomever it was, might have disappeared immediately afterward...for whatever reason.
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Tom
Chesterfield, MO
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Bumping for Maura wrote: <quoted text>
Bill,
Surely we can not under any circumstances be 100% sure that Mr Atwood was able to absolutely positively identify the female driver of the Saturn at the WB curve.
It would have been quite impossible for anyone in Mr Atwood´s position to be able to make that kind of certain identification in the darkness and remaining some way away from the driver of the Saturn.
Mr Atwood obviously saw and spoke to someone at the Saturn who looked like Maura. I´m not remotely suggesting that he wasn´t speaking the truth.
It likely was Maura at the Saturn, but this supposed identification would likely not have held up in court.
An Amherst scenario is therefore not to be scoffed at. Her vanishing in NH isn't enough, we have to make an even grander story now that she disappeared before hand? When does it stop? Maybe at some point we can form a theory that Maura Murray isn't even Maura Murray, but her real name is Sara Smith. They were both born on the same day in the same hospital, but they were switched at birth, so Maura Murray is actually safe at work right now under the name Sara Smith, but Sara Smith is the one missing.
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Beagle
Worcester, MA
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Tom wrote: <quoted text>
The accident report said she was driving, and Maura's father insurance was covering the accident. If this isn't accepted as some form of truth than even more theories can be made from an already enough complex case. Yes, the accident report says she was driving. This is excellent indication that Maura was at the scene of the Corolla crash when the responding officer showed up. But it doesn't mean she was driving. Maura may have been a passenger. Maura may have been up the street at SW and someone else may have crashed the Corolla and then called Maura to come down and cover for him/her. There has also been reported - only reported - that thee was difference of about an hour from time Maura left the little party at SW to the time of the Corolla crash. The driving time from SW to the Corolla crash scene is maybe two minutes.
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Bumping for Maura
Norrköping, Sweden
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Snowy wrote: <quoted text>
excellent questions; all within the realm of possibilities. And I can think of a friend of Maura´s who looked pretty much like Maura (as seen in several pictures), at least to someone who may not have known either Maura herself or her female friend in question. Especially so at night, in the dark.
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Since: Nov 08
Location hidden
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Please wait...
Bumping for Maura wrote: <quoted text>
Bill,
Surely we can not under any circumstances be 100% sure that Mr Atwood was able to absolutely positively identify the female driver of the Saturn at the WB curve.
It would have been quite impossible for anyone in Mr Atwood´s position to be able to make that kind of certain identification in the darkness and remaining some way away from the driver of the Saturn.
Mr Atwood obviously saw and spoke to someone at the Saturn who looked like Maura. I´m not remotely suggesting that he wasn´t speaking the truth.
It likely was Maura at the Saturn, but this supposed identification would likely not have held up in court.
An Amherst scenario is therefore not to be scoffed at. I don't need to be 100% sure. 99% will work just fine for me. Occam will tell you that the person driving Maura's car, that has dark hair, like Maura, and about Maura's height, and around Maura's age. Is Maura until someone proves otherwise. Everyone wants to approach this as a mystery story. If you want to have some Maura lookalike who has stolen Maura's car and then disappeared, what happened to the lookalike? She was whisked away by another car that was following her car? Keep going with that and see how far you need to carry that until it unravels. It was Maura until PROVEN otherwise because that is the shortest distance to an answer that makes sense. Bill
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Beagle
Worcester, MA
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Judged:
3
2
WTH-the-original wrote: <quoted text>
I am telling you that what is left after a very short period of time is scattered and instead or looking for a 110 pound person, you are looking for bones that are scattered far and wide. Bill This is the case when the (few) remains of Molly Bish were found by police in the woods apx three years after she disappeared. Her remains were found apx five miles from where she was last seen. Actually, Bish's bathing suit was noticed by a hunter in the fall of 2002, but not reported to the police until the following spring. Mass. state police responded a few days later and found a few very widely scattered bones. Bish's bathing suit survived for three years, but only a minimal amount of her body survived that long.
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Beagle
Worcester, MA
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WTH-the-original wrote: <quoted text>
I don't need to be 100% sure. 99% will work just fine for me. Occam will tell you that the person driving Maura's car, that has dark hair, like Maura, and about Maura's height, and around Maura's age. Is Maura until someone proves otherwise.
Bill You mean prove a negative?
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Since: Nov 08
Location hidden
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Please wait...
Beagle wrote: <quoted text>
This is the case when the (few) remains of Molly Bish were found by police in the woods apx three years after she disappeared. Her remains were found apx five miles from where she was last seen.
Actually, Bish's bathing suit was noticed by a hunter in the fall of 2002, but not reported to the police until the following spring. Mass. state police responded a few days later and found a few very widely scattered bones. Bish's bathing suit survived for three years, but only a minimal amount of her body survived that long. Yep. A few very widely scattered bones. An accidental find. Hunter really didn't realize what he was looking at. It has been eight years for Maura and there are larger and more predators in the White mountains. And I will point out when the police did their search for Molly's remains in that area. They did it on hands and knees, shoulder to shoulder. And that is all they found. Bill
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Beagle
Worcester, MA
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WTH-the-original wrote: <quoted text>
I don't need to be 100% sure. 99% will work just fine for me. Occam will tell you that the person driving Maura's car, that has dark hair, like Maura, and about Maura's height, and around Maura's age. That there was a woman standing in the dark who looked like Maura, next to the car she usually drove, does indeed indicate that she probably was there. But it's too iffy. It's not really solid. And if you really like things to be solid, you cannot responsibly commit yourself to this view. Even if it's probable, that does not mean that reasonable alternatives should not be considered, especially after 8 years. I agree with you that she probably left the Saturn and died in the woods, but if she was my daughter I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket. I would, for the sake of finding out what happened, look at the big picture, which includes something having gone wrong in Amherst MA or between Amherst and Haverhill NH. Saying that she probably walked into the woods and died - for whatever reason - is nice, it's conservative, it's intuitive. But it doesn't do justice to finding her or finding out what happened. It closes off consideration of other possibilities that also merit consideration. Is that what you recommend? Remember, possibility turns into probability at only one point on the continuum of possibility.
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Since: Nov 08
Location hidden
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Please wait...
Beagle wrote: <quoted text>
You mean prove a negative? No. You are not trying to prove a negative. Tell me anything that would lead someone to believe than any of the evidence we had at the scene shows it wasn't Maura. Did the witness see a guy instead of a girl? Was the girl seen a blond? Was she missing an ear or some teeth or maybe she was cross-eyed? Did she not speak English? Did she have a butch haircut. SBD said nothing like that in the description of the girl he saw. Tell me something that would make me know that it wasn't Maura because without proof it wasn't her, it was. Bill
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Beagle
Worcester, MA
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Judged:
3
2
Tom wrote: <quoted text>
Her vanishing in NH isn't enough, we have to make an even grander story now that she disappeared before hand? When does it stop? Maybe at some point we can form a theory that Maura Murray isn't even Maura Murray, but her real name is Sara Smith. They were both born on the same day in the same hospital, but they were switched at birth, so Maura Murray is actually safe at work right now under the name Sara Smith, but Sara Smith is the one missing. So now you think Sara Smith was with the Saturn at the WB curve? Is she safe or did she fatally cut herself on the Occam's Razor behind the blue ribbon?
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Dating
